Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP)?

What you need to know

This market is asking: when Intel reports its Q2 2025 financial results, what percentage of its revenue will be left over after paying the direct costs to make its products — specifically the adjusted (non-GAAP) version of that figure? Gross margin is basically a profitability measure: if Intel earns $100 in revenue and it costs $60 to produce what it sold, the gross margin is 40%. The three brackets here — 38–40%, 40–42%, and 42–44% — each represent a different level of that profitability. Higher means Intel kept more of each dollar it earned. When Intel officially publishes its Q2 earnings materials — think press releases, investor slides, or SEC filings — the market settles on whichever bracket contains the reported adjusted gross margin number. The first published figure counts; later corrections do not. If Intel never publishes earnings by August 31, 2026, or if it doesn't include this specific metric, the market defaults to the lowest bracket (38–40%). One useful edge case: if the number lands exactly on a boundary, say precisely 40.00%, it goes into the higher bracket. None of the provided news headlines are related to Intel, its earnings, or the semiconductor industry. There is no relevant recent news to draw from here. To watch for: Intel's actual Q2 earnings release date (typically late July), any guidance Intel has given about expected margins, and broader trends in chip demand or manufacturing costs that could affect profitability. Intel is in the middle of a significant business transformation — restructuring its manufacturing operations, competing with TSMC and AMD, and managing a difficult cost environment. Gross margins can shift meaningfully quarter to quarter based on product mix, factory utilization, and one-time charges. The fact that the market splits fairly evenly across three brackets (34%, 33%, 25%) reflects genuine uncertainty: participants don't strongly agree. The adjusted figure also strips out certain costs, so how Intel defines those adjustments matters too — though the criteria require the most precise reported version.

The odds right now

• 40%-42%36%
• 38%-40%32%
• 42%-44%25%
• 44%+10%
• <38%1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve according to Intel's adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

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