June Inflation US - Monthly

What you need to know

This market is asking how much prices in the US rose or stayed flat in June 2026 compared to May 2026 — specifically, whether that monthly change was 0.1% or less, or something higher. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the government's main scorecard for everyday prices: groceries, rent, gas, medical care, and more. A reading of 0.1% or less means prices were essentially flat month-to-month — almost no new inflation that month. A reading of 0.2% would mean prices crept up a little more noticeably. This market settles based on the official US inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. The BLS rounds its number to one decimal place, so only that rounded figure counts — not any estimate or revision. If the report shows 0.1% or below, the dominant outcome wins. One edge case worth knowing: if the BLS delays the report, the market stays open until the next scheduled release; if it never comes, it resolves using the most recent available monthly data. No US CPI data for June 2026 appears in the provided headlines — though the report is due the same day this market closes, July 14, 2026. The news provided covers India's inflation and wholesale price trends, which are unrelated to this US measure. The key development to watch is simply the BLS report itself at 8:30 AM ET on July 14, as that single release directly determines how this market resolves. At 98%, the market is strongly tilted toward 0.1% or less — so this is not really a two-sided debate. The main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected pushes the number to 0.2% or higher. Monthly CPI can be nudged by sudden moves in energy prices, shelter costs, or tariff-driven price changes — any of which can shift a rounded reading by a tenth of a percent. That one rounding step is the entire question here, which makes a small surprise just enough to change the outcome.

The odds right now

• ≤0.1%+1.7 pts (1w)100%
• 0.2%-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• 0.3%-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• 0.4%-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• 0.5%-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 0.6%-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 0.7%-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 0.8%-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• ≥0.9%-0.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in June 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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