Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Hong Kong get on the night of July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking what the single lowest temperature reading will be across that whole day — think of it as the coldest point of that 24-hour period, typically in the early morning hours before sunrise. The three options are 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C (roughly 77°F to 81°F), which are all warm temperatures — this is midsummer Hong Kong, not a cold snap. The market settles based on one specific number: the official "Absolute Daily Minimum" temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on July 15, 2026, published in their Daily Extract report. Whatever one-decimal-place reading they publish first is what counts — for example, 25.8°C would fall in the 25°C bucket, and 26.3°C in the 26°C bucket. Importantly, if the Observatory later corrects that number, the correction is ignored. Only the first published figure matters. There's no specific recent news tied to this market. That's normal for a weather question more than a year away — no forecast exists that far out. What would matter closer to the date are seasonal weather outlooks for Hong Kong's summer, any unusual climate patterns like a strong La Niña or El Niño influence, and eventually the short-range forecast for that specific week in July 2026. July in Hong Kong is reliably hot and humid, so the range here is narrow — all three options sit within just 2°C of each other. That tight spread is actually what makes this hard to call: the difference between 25.9°C and 26.0°C determines which bucket wins, and small factors like overnight cloud cover, a passing rain shower, or a light southerly breeze can tip the reading either way. The market currently leans toward 26°C, but the three options are split enough that no outcome looks certain.

The odds right now

• 26°C41%
• 25°C31%
• 27°C10%
• 24°C5%
• 23°C1%
• 22°C or below0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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