Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how cold will Hong Kong get overnight into July 16, 2026? Specifically, it's asking which temperature bucket — 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C — will contain the single lowest reading of the whole day. In practical terms, these are all warm, humid summer temperatures; the question is just about small differences in how cool the overnight low dips. It settles based on the official daily minimum temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 16, 2026 — the number listed as 'Absolute Daily Min' in their Daily Extract records. The temperature is measured to one decimal place (for example, 26.4°C would count as the 26°C bucket). Whichever bucket contains that number wins. One thing to note: if the Observatory later revises that figure, the revision is ignored — only the first published number counts. None of the provided news headlines relate to Hong Kong's weather or climate conditions around July 16, 2026. If you wanted to track this market, the most useful thing to watch would be Hong Kong Observatory forecasts as the date approaches, or any tropical cyclone or monsoon trough activity in the region, which can noticeably shift overnight lows. Mid-July in Hong Kong is deep summer, so overnight lows tend to cluster in a narrow warm range — but exactly which degree they land on is genuinely hard to pin down. Small shifts in wind direction, cloud cover, or nearby weather systems can push the low up or down by a degree or two. The market is fairly split between 27°C (39%) and 26°C (36%), reflecting that uncertainty honestly. A year out, any meaningful forecast is essentially impossible.

The odds right now

• 27°C39%
• 26°C36%
• 25°C12%
• 28°C10%
• 24°C6%
• 29°C1%
• 23°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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