Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Hong Kong get overnight into July 19, 2026 — specifically, what will the single lowest temperature reading of that day be? July is deep summer in Hong Kong, so even the overnight low stays very warm. The three options — 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C — are all roughly 78–82°F. A 'Yes' for any one option means the official minimum that day falls within that degree band, for example anywhere from 27.0°C to 27.9°C for the 27°C option. The market settles based on the official daily minimum temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 19, 2026 — one specific number, measured to one decimal place, like 26.8°C. Whichever 1-degree band that number falls into wins. The data source is the Observatory's published 'Daily Extract' report. Crucially, if that report is later corrected or revised, the revision does not count — only the first published figure matters. The market stays open until that data is officially published. No weather-relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline is a blog post about Hong Kong's street cats — interesting, but unrelated to temperature. To track this market, the thing to watch would be short-range weather forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory in the days just before July 19, 2026, especially any signals about unusual humidity, cloud cover, or wind patterns that could push overnight lows slightly higher or lower. Mid-July overnight lows in Hong Kong cluster tightly around 27–28°C historically, which is exactly why all three options are competitive. A single degree separates every outcome, and the daily minimum can hinge on small things — a passing rain shower, a brief wind shift, or a slightly cloudier night trapping heat. Weather is also genuinely hard to forecast more than a week out, and this market runs until July 2026. The market currently leans toward 27°C, but the gap between all three options is narrow enough that any of them is plausible.

The odds right now

• 28°C41%
• 27°C32%
• 26°C21%
• 25°C8%
• 24°C2%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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