Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of July 20, 2026 feel like in Hong Kong? Specifically, it's asking which single degree Celsius bucket — 26°C, 27°C, or 28°C — will contain the lowest temperature reading of the entire day. In real-world terms, mid-July in Hong Kong is deep summer, so even the coolest point of that day (typically early morning) is expected to stay in the high 20s — warm and humid by most standards. After July 20, 2026 passes, the Hong Kong Observatory publishes an official daily climate record. This market settles based on whichever temperature range contains the 'Absolute Daily Minimum' figure listed in that record. The reading is precise to one decimal (like 27.3°C), so a reading of 27.3°C would resolve the market as 27°C. Importantly, only the first published figure counts — if the Observatory later corrects or revises the number, that revision is ignored for this market. None of the recent news provided relates to Hong Kong weather, temperature records, or climate conditions. For this market, the kind of development worth watching would be extended weather forecasts for Hong Kong in mid-July 2026, or signals about unusual heat or cooling patterns in the South China Sea region as the date approaches. July 20 is still a year away, and daily low temperatures — even in a predictable summer climate — vary enough to matter here. The three leading options (26°C, 27°C, 28°C) are each within a single degree of each other, and the market prices them almost equally at roughly 28–32% each. A passing rain shower, a slightly stronger sea breeze, or a brief cloudy night can easily push the low one degree in either direction. Small meteorological nudges, hard to foresee this far out, separate the outcomes.

The odds right now

• 27°C35%
• 28°C31%
• 26°C24%
• 25°C11%
• 29°C5%
• 24°C2%
• 23°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 30°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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