Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 15, 2026, what will the coldest point of the day be in Hong Kong, according to the official weather station? The three options are temperature ranges centered around 24°C, 25°C, and 26°C — roughly the difference between a warm night and a hot one. June is deep into Hong Kong's summer, so nobody is talking about cold weather here; the question is really about how warm the nighttime low gets on that specific day. The market settles based on one specific number: the 'Absolute Daily Minimum' temperature that the Hong Kong Observatory officially publishes for June 15, 2026, in their Daily Extract data. Whatever range that number falls into wins. The temperature is measured to one decimal place, so 25.4°C would count as 25°C. One important detail: if the Observatory later corrects or revises that number, the revision does not count — only the first published figure is used. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline available — a helicopter collision in Brazil — has no connection to Hong Kong weather. To watch for something meaningful here, you'd want local Hong Kong weather forecasts or meteorological outlooks for mid-June 2026 as that date approaches. Weather on a single specific day more than a year away is genuinely hard to predict — even professional forecasters struggle beyond about two weeks. June in Hong Kong is hot and humid, which is why the options cluster around 24–26°C rather than, say, 20°C, but daily lows still vary based on cloud cover, wind, rain, and passing weather systems. The market is spread across three options with no dominant favorite, reflecting that real day-to-day variation. Small shifts in conditions could easily move the result from one band to another.

The odds right now

• 26°C63%
• 25°C35%
• 24°C13%
• 23°C3%
• 22°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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