Lowest temperature in London on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 15, 2026, what will the coldest recorded temperature be at London City Airport — and specifically, does it fall within the 16°C range? Think of it as predicting the overnight low for that single day in London. A 'Yes' for 16°C means the thermometer's lowest reading that day lands at exactly 16 degrees Celsius. Every other temperature range — warmer or cooler — would be a 'No' for this particular option. After July 15, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground historical page for London City Airport (station code EGLC) and reads the single lowest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whatever number appears there determines which temperature bracket wins. The market can only officially settle once the first data point from July 16 appears on that page — so there's a short wait after midnight before it closes. The only news provided is about Sri Lanka's economy, which has no connection to London weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date are extended UK weather forecasts, particularly whether a warm or cool air mass is expected to sit over southern England around mid-July 2026. Weather in mid-July London typically ranges from around 12°C to 20°C for overnight lows, so 16°C is a plausible outcome — but any single degree is genuinely hard to predict, which is why the market prices this option at just 2%. The real challenge is precision: even an accurate forecast might say 'around 16°C' but the final reading could land at 15 or 17. At this far out — over a year away — no forecast tool has meaningful accuracy for a specific day's low temperature.

The odds right now

• 17°C99%
• 16°C2%
• 15°C0%
• 13°C or below0%
• 14°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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