Lowest temperature in London on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 20, 2026, what will the coldest temperature of the day be in London — specifically at London City Airport? Mid-July in London is summer, so we're not talking about freezing cold — the question is really whether the overnight low dips to around 12°C (roughly 54°F), stays near 13°C (about 55°F), or holds a bit warmer at 14°C (57°F). Think of it as: how cool does London get on that particular summer night and morning? At the end of July 20, 2026, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the London City Airport station and reads the single lowest temperature recorded across the whole day — rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whatever that number is, the matching option wins. The market can only settle once the first data point for July 21 appears on that site, confirming the full day's record is in. Temperature readings can be revised up until that point, but not after. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That's not unusual — weather markets this far out don't have much news to track yet. What would matter to watch closer to the date: seasonal weather outlooks for the UK in July 2026, and any forecasts specifically mentioning overnight lows for London around that time. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market resolves over a year from now — so any forecast today is essentially a guess based on historical patterns. London's July overnight lows typically fall in the 12–15°C range, which is exactly why the three options are clustered so tightly. A single unusually warm or cool night could shift the result. The market currently spreads its weight fairly evenly across all three options, reflecting that honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 13°C53%
• 12°C22%
• 14°C20%
• 11°C8%
• 10°C1%
• 9°C or below0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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