Lowest temperature in Miami on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Miami get overnight on July 15, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single coldest temperature reading recorded at Miami International Airport that entire day — usually the overnight low, somewhere in the early morning hours. A result in the 78–79°F range means a fairly typical warm Miami summer night; 80–81°F means an unusually muggy, barely-cooling night; 76–77°F means a slightly cooler night than average. After July 15, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market will check the Weather Underground page for Miami International Airport (KMIA) and find the single lowest temperature reading recorded that day, in whole-degree Fahrenheit. Whatever temperature range that number falls into wins. Revisions to the recorded temperature are accepted until the first new data point for July 16 appears — after that, the number is locked in, even if Weather Underground later corrects it. No relevant recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — it's a weather question about a specific day more than a year away. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal outlooks from NOAA, any unusual pressure systems over Florida in mid-July 2026, and whether a tropical weather system happens to be affecting South Florida that week. The main challenge is simple: weather this far in advance is genuinely unknowable. Miami in mid-July is reliably hot and humid, which is why the market leans toward 78–79°F — that range fits the historical average well. But any passing thunderstorm, a brief cold front dipping from the north, or an unusually stagnant heat dome could shift the low a few degrees in either direction. A few degrees is all it takes to move between categories here, so even small surprises matter.

The odds right now

• 78-79°F43%
• 80-81°F25%
• 76-77°F10%
• 82-83°F5%
• 74-75°F4%
• 84-85°F3%
• 72-73°F1%
• 86-87°F0%
• 90°F or higher0%
• 71°F or below0%
• 88-89°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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