Lowest temperature in NYC on June 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of June 14, 2026 feel like at a specific weather station in New York City? The station is at LaGuardia Airport, which gives official, consistent readings. A 'Yes' for any range means the thermometer's single lowest dip of that day landed inside those two degrees — for example, a reading of 74°F or 75°F would settle the 74–75°F bracket. It's essentially a temperature guessing game for one specific day. After June 14, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks Weather Underground's historical log for LaGuardia Airport (station code KLGA). They find the single lowest whole-number Fahrenheit temperature recorded at any point during that day. Whichever 2-degree range contains that number wins. The market can only close once the first data point for June 15 appears, confirming the day is fully recorded. Any last-minute corrections to the data are accepted until that cutoff — after that, the number is final. None of the provided news articles relate to this market. They are all about higher education topics with no connection to New York City weather. For this market, the only news that would matter is a weather forecast for New York City around June 14, 2026 — particularly any early guidance from meteorologists about whether that week will be warmer or cooler than normal for mid-June. Weather a year in advance is genuinely unpredictable — no forecast model reaches that far. Even a week out, overnight low temperatures in NYC can shift several degrees based on wind direction, cloud cover, humidity, and whether a cool front passes through. The market currently spreads probability across several ranges, with no single bracket above 25%, which reflects real uncertainty. Mid-June in New York typically sees lows in the low-to-mid 60s through mid-70s, so the winning range could realistically land anywhere across a wide band.

The odds right now

• 72-73°F38%
• 76-77°F22%
• 74-75°F14%
• 68-69°F8%
• 70-71°F7%
• 66-67°F3%
• 64-65°F0%
• 78-79°F0%
• 63°F or below0%
• 80-81°F0%
• 82°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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