Lowest temperature in Paris on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on the night into July 16, 2026, how cold will it get in Paris? Specifically, it wants to know the single lowest temperature recorded that day at a Paris airport weather station. July 16 is a summer day, so we're really talking about the overnight low — probably in the early morning hours before sunrise. The three leading guesses are 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C, which in everyday terms is a mild, pleasant summer night: think light blanket weather, not hot, not cold. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the lowest reading recorded on July 16, 2026 at Paris-Le Bourget Airport, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. The market can only close after the first data point for July 17 is published, so it will wait until that day has started before officially settling. Any last-minute corrections to the July 16 data can count, but once July 17's first reading appears, the number is locked in. No relevant recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — it's about a specific weather reading more than a year away. The kind of update that would actually matter here is a weather forecast for Paris in mid-July 2026, which won't be meaningfully accurate until about a week before the date. Weather a year out is genuinely impossible to predict with precision. Even professional forecasts are only reliable about 10 days ahead. July in Paris typically sees overnight lows ranging roughly from 15°C to 23°C, so the spread across the options is realistic — but no model today can tell you whether July 16, 2026 will be a warm muggy night or a cooler one. The market's current spread across 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C reflects that honest uncertainty, with no clear frontrunner.

The odds right now

• 19°C30%
• 20°C30%
• 21°C14%
• 18°C9%
• 22°C3%
• 17°C or below2%
• 23°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 27°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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