Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Seoul get on the night of July 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking for the single coldest temperature reading of the whole day at Incheon International Airport — the kind of low you'd feel at 4 or 5 in the morning. The three options (22°C, 23°C, 24°C) are all warm by most standards — mid-July in Seoul is deep summer — but the question is exactly how warm the overnight low will be, down to the nearest whole degree. The market settles based on one specific number: the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Airport weather station on July 15, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. It's read in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. Whichever of the three options (22°C, 23°C, or 24°C) matches that final reading wins. One important detail: if the temperature is revised after the first reading of July 16 appears on that page, the revision won't count. The first published number is effectively the final one. The only recent headline provided is about an education program in India, which has no connection to Seoul's weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter is any long-range forecast for Seoul around July 15, 2026, or meteorological outlooks for the Korean Peninsula that summer — those are the kinds of updates worth watching as the date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and a year out it's essentially impossible to call with precision. The three options cover only a 3-degree range (22–24°C), which makes this quite sensitive to small variations — a slightly stronger or weaker monsoon pattern, a passing rain system, or a shift in wind direction could easily swing the result by a degree or two. The market currently leans toward 24°C, but 22°C and 23°C together account for more than half the probability, reflecting real spread in where this could land.

The odds right now

• 24°C72%
• 23°C21%
• 22°C5%
• 21°C5%
• 19°C or below0%
• 20°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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