Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 16, 2026, what will the coolest temperature of the day be in the Seoul area — specifically at Incheon International Airport? July is deep summer in South Korea, so even the overnight low tends to be warm. The options reflect that: 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C are all roughly 72–75°F. The question isn't whether it'll be hot, but exactly how warm the coolest part of that day turns out to be. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature recorded at Incheon Airport on July 16, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 17 appears on that page; any corrections posted after that cutoff don't count. So if the overnight low is, say, 23.7°C, it would round to 24°C for resolution purposes. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. For a weather question like this, what would actually matter is a seasonal forecast for Seoul in mid-July 2026 or any climate pattern signals (like an unusually strong or weak monsoon season) that could shift overnight temperatures above or below normal. Those kinds of updates typically don't appear until much closer to the date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week or two out, and this market resolves in over a year. Seoul's mid-July overnight lows typically cluster in the low-to-mid 20s°C, which is why the three options are so close together — a single degree separates them. Whether a particular night ends up at 22°C, 23°C, or 24°C can depend on passing cloud cover, wind direction, or a brief rain shower. The market currently leans toward 23°C at 42%, but the spread across options reflects genuine meteorological uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 23°C55%
• 24°C27%
• 22°C16%
• 21°C4%
• 25°C4%
• 26°C1%
• 20°C1%
• 19°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.