Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will be the coldest temperature of the day at Incheon International Airport, near Seoul? The options are temperature ranges centered around 21°C, 22°C, or 23°C — roughly 70–73°F. A 'Yes' on 23°C means the overnight or early-morning low that day stays relatively warm; lower options mean the night dips a bit cooler. Mid-July in Seoul is deep summer, so even the 'low' temperatures tend to stay quite warm. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Incheon Airport on July 19, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground historical data page for that station. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. Whichever range contains that number wins. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 20 appears on that page, after which no later corrections to the July 19 data are counted. No recent news was provided that relates to Seoul's weather or this market. The kind of development worth watching closer to the date would be a weather forecast for the Seoul/Incheon area around July 18–19, 2026 — particularly whether a typhoon, cold front, or unusually humid air mass is expected to move through the region. The market is heavily one-sided: the 23°C outcome is priced at 91%, so the crowd strongly expects a warm July night at Incheon. The real uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that — a passing storm, an unusual cold front, or a single cool pre-dawn hour that pulls the low down to 22°C or below. Weather forecasting more than a year out is essentially impossible, so this entire market rests on historical patterns, not any actual forecast.

The odds right now

• 23°C91%
• 22°C6%
• 21°C1%
• 20°C1%
• 19°C or below1%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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