Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 11, 2026, what will be the coldest temperature recorded at Seoul's main international airport? The answer gets sorted into buckets — the two active ones are 16°C (about 61°F) or 15°C (about 59°F). A 'Yes' for 16°C means the coldest reading that night and morning stays at or near that level; a 'Yes' for 15°C means it dips a degree lower. Think of it as guessing the coolest moment of that one day — usually the pre-dawn hours. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading logged at Incheon International Airport on June 11, 2026, using Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for June 12 appears on that site. Any corrections to the June 11 data made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. Whichever temperature bucket contains that final number wins. No recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — it's a weather question about a specific day still over a year away. What would actually matter closer to the date: seasonal weather pattern forecasts for the Korean peninsula in early June, and any unusually warm or cool spring trends in the region as June 2026 approaches. A year out, daily temperature forecasts are essentially impossible — even professional meteorologists can't predict a single day's low that far ahead. That said, the market is priced very lopsidedly: roughly 98% on 16°C. Early June in Seoul is reliably mild, and historical lows at Incheon on that calendar date cluster in that range. The real uncertainty is simply whether an unusual cold snap or an unseasonably warm night shifts the reading by even one degree. One degree is all it takes to flip the outcome.

The odds right now

• 16°C98%
• 15°C2%
• 14°C0%
• 11°C or below0%
• 12°C0%
• 13°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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