Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on the night and morning of July 15, 2026, what will the coolest temperature of the day be at Shanghai's Pudong Airport — will it dip to around 28°C (about 82°F) or stay closer to 29°C (about 84°F)? July is deep summer in Shanghai, so even the 'low' temperature stays very warm — this isn't about cold weather at all, just whether the overnight low lands on one warm number or another one degree cooler. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on July 15, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 28.7°C would count as 29°C, for example. It can only officially close once the first data point from July 16 appears on that page, locking in the final reading. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for Shanghai in mid-July 2026 — for instance, whether an unusual heat wave or a tropical weather system is expected around that date. As July 2026 approaches, short-range weather forecasts (typically reliable within 7–10 days) would become the most useful signal. One degree Celsius is an extremely small margin, and that is the entire question here. Summer overnight lows in Shanghai vary based on cloud cover, humidity, sea breezes, and whether a rain event passes through — all things that are essentially impossible to predict over a year in advance. The market currently leans toward 29°C, but at 59% vs 43% (noting these odds sum slightly over 100%, suggesting other outcomes may exist), both outcomes are very much in play. A single weather system could easily shift the answer either way.

The odds right now

• 29°C65%
• 28°C7%
• 27°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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