Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 19, 2026, what will the coolest temperature of the day be in Shanghai — specifically at Shanghai Pudong International Airport — measured in whole degrees Celsius? July is deep summer in Shanghai, so the overnight low is still warm, typically in the mid-to-upper 20s. The three options are 25°C (about 77°F), 26°C (about 79°F), or 27°C (about 81°F) — a narrow band covering the realistic range of a hot summer night. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Shanghai Pudong Airport on July 19, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. Readings are in whole degrees Celsius — no decimal rounding involved. The final answer is locked in once the first data point for July 20 appears on that page, after which any later corrections to July 19's data are ignored. Whichever of the three temperature options — 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C — matches that lowest recorded number wins. No relevant news was provided for this market. That's completely normal here — weather markets like this don't really move on news stories. What would matter closer to the date is a reliable short-range weather forecast for Shanghai: specifically, whether a cooler air mass, cloud cover, or rain might push overnight lows down toward 25°C, or whether a heat dome keeps them elevated near 27°C. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market resolves over a year from now, so any forecast today is essentially a guess based on historical patterns. July in Shanghai is consistently hot and humid, which is why all three options cluster tightly between 25°C and 27°C — but even within that narrow band, a single passing storm or a shift in regional winds can move the overnight low by a degree or two. The market is fairly split between 26°C and 27°C, reflecting real uncertainty even among people who follow this closely.

The odds right now

• 27°C49%
• 26°C38%
• 25°C11%
• 23°C or below1%
• 24°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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