Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 12, 2026, what is the coldest it gets overnight or at any point during that day at Shanghai's Pudong Airport? The three options are temperature ranges around 19°C, 20°C, or 21°C (roughly 66–70°F). A 'Yes' on 21°C means the coldest reading of the day falls in that range — so temperatures never dip below it. Early June in Shanghai is warm and humid, so a low around 21°C (about 70°F) is a typical mild summer night there. The market settles based on one specific number: the single lowest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong Airport on June 12, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. It uses whole-degree Celsius readings only — no decimals. The market waits until the first data point from June 13 appears before finalizing, to allow any late corrections to June 12's data to be included. Whichever temperature range (19°C, 20°C, or 21°C) contains that final lowest reading wins. The two news items provided — a community calendar and a story about bank lending in Asia — have no connection to Shanghai weather or this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any meteorological forecast for Shanghai in mid-June 2026, or historical climate data showing how often June 12 lows fall in each of these ranges. The market is priced almost entirely on 21°C (99%), so the main honest question is just whether something unexpected happens — an unusual cold front, a late-season weather system, or simply a cooler-than-average night. June in Shanghai is reliably warm, which is why the market is so lopsided. The real residual risk is the kind of thing forecasters occasionally miss: atypical weather. There is also a small data risk — Weather Underground's readings occasionally differ from other sources, and the criteria depend entirely on that one station.

The odds right now

• 21°C100%
• 20°C0%
• 16°C or below0%
• 19°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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