Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of July 15, 2026 feel like in Tokyo — specifically, what will the lowest temperature reading be at Tokyo's Haneda Airport that day? In mid-July, Tokyo is deep in summer, so 'lowest temperature' here means the coolest point of the night or early morning, not a cold day. The three options — 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C — are all warm by most standards; this is really a question of just how hot the overnight low will be, with the market leaning toward 26°C. The market settles based on a single number: the lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on July 15, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground (Wunderground). That temperature is measured in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. Whichever option (25°C, 26°C, or 27°C) matches that number wins. The data becomes final once the first reading from July 16 appears on Wunderground; any corrections made before that point count, but corrections after it do not. There is no human judgment involved — it is purely what the weather station records. No recent news is available for this market, which makes sense — it's asking about a weather reading more than a year from now. What would matter closer to the date is the broader climate pattern for that summer in Japan: things like whether a heat wave is in progress, whether it's an unusually humid season, and the specific weather system passing over Tokyo on July 14–15, 2026. A year is a very long time ahead for a weather forecast. Even professional meteorologists can only predict temperatures reliably about two weeks out. The range between the three options is narrow — just two degrees separates the lowest and highest choice — and a single overnight heat wave, an unexpected cloud cover, or a sea breeze can easily shift the reading by one degree. The market prices 26°C as the most likely outcome, but 27°C at 30% reflects real uncertainty about increasingly hot Tokyo summers, and 25°C remains a small but live possibility.

The odds right now

• 27°C70%
• 26°C30%
• 25°C3%
• 24°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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