Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 13, 2026, what will the coldest temperature of the day be at Tokyo's Haneda Airport? The three possible answers are 19°C (about 66°F), 18°C (about 64°F), or 17°C (about 63°F) — these are all fairly mild, which makes sense for early summer in Tokyo. A Yes on 19°C means the coldest reading of that entire day stays within the 19°C range; lower outcomes mean a cooler-than-typical night or morning. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on June 13, 2026, pulled from the weather site Wunderground. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees Celsius — so 18.7°C would count as 18°C. The result is locked in after the first data point from June 14 appears on that site. Any corrections Wunderground makes before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. There is no human judgment involved — it is purely what the sensor reads. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, what would actually matter closer to the date are Tokyo weather forecasts for mid-June 2026, any unusually warm or cool seasonal outlooks for Japan, and historical temperature records for that specific date at Haneda. The market is very lopsided — participants currently put 98% probability on 19°C — so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unusual happens, not a genuine debate between two equal possibilities. Early June in Tokyo is consistently warm, which is why 17°C or 18°C feel unlikely. The real unknowns are weather variability over a year-long horizon, the possibility of an unseasonably cool front passing through on that specific night, and the precision of a single-station reading.

The odds right now

• 19°C98%
• 18°C1%
• 17°C0%
• 12°C0%
• 13°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 11°C or below0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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