MLB: NL Manager of the Year: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which National League baseball manager will win the NL Manager of the Year award after the 2026 MLB season ends. The award is voted on by baseball writers and recognizes the best managerial performance in the NL that year. A Yes on a specific manager means that person wins the award. The three named candidates, Clayton McCullough, Walt Weiss, and Oliver Marmol, are the current frontrunners, but any other NL manager could also win, which is why the combined odds leave significant room for someone not listed. The market settles on whichever manager officially receives the 2026 NL Manager of the Year award, as announced by Major League Baseball. The Baseball Writers' Association of America votes on this award after the regular season, typically in November. The result must be declared before December 31, 2026; otherwise the market resolves as 'Other.' If somehow two managers tie and both are declared winners, the one whose last name comes first alphabetically would be used here, which is an unusual edge case but worth knowing. None of the provided news headlines relate to MLB, the 2026 season, or any of the managers listed. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be team standings, a manager guiding an underperforming team to a surprise season, notable roster decisions, or any managerial changes across NL teams. This award is genuinely hard to predict because it depends on how the full 2026 season plays out, and we are still in the middle of that season. Managers on teams that outperform expectations tend to win, so if a surprise team rises, their manager becomes a strong candidate overnight. The current odds are spread across several names with no dominant favorite, and a manager not even listed could win. How each team finishes relative to preseason expectations matters more than almost anything else.

The odds right now

• Walt Weiss+0.5 pts (1w)22%
• Clayton McCullough-7.0 pts (1w)21%
• Oliver Marmol-3.6 pts (1w)8%
• Pat Murphy+0.5 pts (1w)7%
• Don Kelly-2.0 pts (1w)4%
• Blake Butera+1.5 pts (1w)4%
• Tony Vitello+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Craig Stammen-0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Torey Lovullo1%
• Craig Counsell-1.1 pts (1w)1%
• Warren Schaeffer+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Dave Roberts-0.3 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 19, 2026

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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