"Moana (2026)" Opening Weekend Box Office

What you need to know

This market is asking how much money the 2026 live-action Moana film earns in U.S. theaters during its first weekend — specifically Friday July 10 through Sunday July 12. The two brackets are $39–44 million and $34–39 million. The market is essentially asking: does Moana open big (above $39M) or softer (below $39M)? Right now, the crowd overwhelmingly expects it to land in the higher range. The market settles based on the official 3-day opening weekend gross reported by The Numbers website — not studio estimates, but the final confirmed figures. If those numbers aren't posted by July 19, 2026, another trusted source steps in. One small detail: if the gross lands exactly on the $39M boundary between the two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket ($39–44M). The data typically becomes final a few days after the weekend closes. None of the provided news headlines relate to this movie or its box office performance — they cover unrelated local events in India and Bangladesh. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of news that would actually matter: any reports of advance ticket sales, critical reviews, or competing films opening the same weekend. The market is priced at 98% for the higher bracket, so this is not really a two-sided debate — the crowd strongly expects a $39M+ opening. The remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected could push the number below $39M: a weak critical reception, a surprise competitor, bad weather in major markets, or simply audiences not showing up. At 98%, the market is saying those scenarios are unlikely — but openings can still surprise.

The odds right now

• 39-44m99%
• 34-39m0%
• <29m0%
• >44m0%
• 29-34m0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Moana" (2026) Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 10 - July 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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