Next UK Home Secretary in 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the UK's top law-and-order minister — the Home Secretary — will be replaced before the end of 2026. Right now, Shabana Mahmood holds that role. A 'Yes' outcome (resolving to a named person) means someone new takes the job with a full, official appointment from the King. A 'No' means Mahmood stays in place, or nobody new is formally appointed, through the end of the year. The market settles on whoever is formally appointed Home Secretary by the UK Monarch before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET — that's the official royal appointment process used for senior government ministers. Two important edge cases: if Mahmood is simply reshuffled and then reappointed to the same role, that counts as 'No next Home Secretary'. And if someone fills the role temporarily as a caretaker, that also does not count. It has to be a new person with a full, permanent appointment. The news provided — about Trump and shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz — has no connection to this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is a UK cabinet reshuffle, a resignation by Mahmood, or a significant political crisis that forces a government shake-up. The main uncertainty is simply whether Prime Minister Starmer decides to reshuffle his cabinet before year-end. Cabinet reshuffles are unpredictable — they depend on political pressure, scandals, or strategic decisions that are largely invisible until they happen. The market currently places this at roughly 55% chance of no change, meaning participants see it as a real but not overwhelming possibility that Mahmood stays. With about five months left in the year, there is meaningful time for circumstances to shift.

The odds right now

• No next Home Secretary in 2026-42.0 pts (1w)44%
• Ed Miliband+16.0 pts (1w)16%
• Yvette Cooper+2.3 pts (1w)11%
• Dan Jarvis+3.3 pts (1w)3%
• Stephen Kinnock-0.8 pts (1w)0%
• Mike Tapp-2.9 pts (1w)0%
• Pat McFadden-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• David Lammy-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Jess Phillips-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Angela Rayner-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed as the next Home Secretary of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Home Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Home Secretary is appointed, or Shabana Mahmood is re-appointed as Home Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Home Secretary in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.