NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether New York City's air will be clean enough — specifically, whether the official air pollution reading drops below a key threshold at least once before a certain date. The measure is PM2.5, which counts tiny particles in the air (from smoke, traffic, industrial exhaust) that can harm lungs. An AQI below 100 means the air is considered acceptable for most people; at 100 or above, sensitive groups like kids and elderly people are advised to limit time outside. So in plain terms: will NYC have at least one reasonably clean air day between July 17 and the target date? The market settles Yes if airnow.gov shows even a single day where NYC's PM2.5 Air Quality Index reads below 100 within the window — July 17 through the specified date (July 19, 20, or 21, depending on which market you're looking at). The data comes from the 'Historical Air Quality' tab on airnow.gov, specifically the 'New York City Region' row. The market may stay open two extra days to wait for final confirmed numbers. If the reading hits 100 or stays above it every day in the window, it resolves No. None of the provided news headlines relate to New York City's air quality during this period. There is a note about an air quality warning in northern Ontario, Canada (North Bay area), which is geographically separate from NYC and not directly relevant. No NYC-specific air quality alerts or wildfire smoke advisories were included in the news provided. The kind of development worth watching would be wildfire smoke forecasts from Canada or the U.S. Northeast, which have driven NYC's worst air quality episodes in recent years. The market prices the July 21 version at 93%, meaning participants collectively think it is very likely NYC sees at least one clean-air day in this stretch — which historically is not unusual. The main remaining uncertainty is an unexpected event: a sudden surge of wildfire smoke drifting from Canada or the western U.S., or a prolonged stagnant weather pattern that traps pollution over the city. Those events are hard to predict even days out. The shorter windows (July 19 at 72%) carry more risk simply because there are fewer days for a clean one to appear.

The odds right now

• July 2195%
• July 2093%
• July 1989%
• July 181%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "New York City region" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.