Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

What you need to know

This market is asking how close the final vote will be in Peru's 2026 presidential runoff — specifically, how many percentage points will separate the winner from the runner-up. Right now the odds are built around a scenario where Keiko Fujimori wins by a very slim margin: somewhere between 0.1% and 0.4%. That's an incredibly tight finish — think of a country of millions of voters where the gap between first and second place is less than half a percentage point. After the June 7, 2026 runoff, Peru's official electoral authorities — ONPE and JNE — will publish the final certified vote totals. The market settles based on the absolute gap between the top two candidates' share of valid votes. For example, if one candidate gets 50.3% and the other 49.9%, the margin is 0.4%. Whichever bracket that number falls into wins. If results aren't officially confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' — a catch-all for unresolved outcomes. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Peru election — they cover U.S. domestic politics. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kind of developments worth watching would be: new polling from Peru, updates on which candidates qualify for the runoff, or any rulings from Peruvian electoral authorities affecting the race. Several layers of uncertainty stack on top of each other here. First, we don't yet know which two candidates will actually face each other in the runoff — the first round hasn't happened. Second, predicting a margin this narrow (fractions of a percent) is extraordinarily difficult even with good polling. Third, the current odds assume Fujimori reaches the runoff and wins closely — both assumptions could be wrong. Small shifts in turnout or late-deciding voters can easily move a result across these thin 0.1% brackets.

The odds right now

• Fujimori 0.3–0.4%37%
• Fujimori 0.2–0.3%31%
• Fujimori 0–0.1%16%
• Fujimori 0.1–0.2%13%
• Sánchez 0.1–0.2%6%
• Fujimori 0.4–0.5%6%
• Sánchez 0–0.1%2%
• Sánchez 0.2–0.3%1%
• Fujimori 0.6–0.7%0%
• Fujimori 1%+0%
• Sánchez 0.3–0.4%0%
• Sánchez 0.7–0.8%0%

Price history

How this resolves

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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