Presidential Election Winner 2028

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be the next US President after the 2028 election? Participants can back any candidate they think will win — right now the field is wide open, with no single person holding a dominant lead. A 'Yes' for any listed candidate means that person wins the White House in November 2028. The market currently spreads its probability across many people, with JD Vance leading at 20%, which itself signals deep uncertainty — no one is close to a favorite yet. The market settles on whoever wins the 2028 presidential election, as declared by all three of these outlets: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three must agree on the same winner — that's the trigger. If they don't all agree by Inauguration Day, January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is actually sworn in as president that day. So even in a disputed or delayed result scenario, inauguration is the final backstop. No recent news directly relevant to the 2028 race was provided. The headlines are mostly about 2025–2026 political conflicts — Newsom criticizing Trump, DOJ controversies — which shape reputations but don't yet tell us much about 2028 specifically. What would matter to watch for: official candidate announcements, primary developments, and how current officeholders perform politically over the next two years. This is one of the hardest markets to call, for several honest reasons. It's over two years away, no primary has been held, and we don't yet know who will even run. The leading name, JD Vance, sits at just 20% — meaning the market treats this as genuinely anyone's race. Party primaries could produce surprise winners. Health, scandal, or major world events could reshape the field entirely. Two years in politics is a very long time, and the candidates listed today may not be the ones on the ballot.

The odds right now

• JD Vance-0.3 pts (1w)20%
• Marco Rubio-1.9 pts (1w)14%
• Gavin Newsom-0.3 pts (1w)12%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3 pts (1w)7%
• Jon Ossoff+0.1 pts (1w)7%
• Kamala Harris+1.3 pts (1w)5%
• Josh Shapiro+0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Pete Buttigieg+0.4 pts (1w)3%
• Ron DeSantis+1.0 pts (1w)2%
• Tucker Carlson2%
• Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Donald Trump-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 7, 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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