Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Russia and Ukraine will formally agree to stop fighting before a given deadline — and it offers three different deadlines to choose from. A 'Yes' means both sides publicly commit to halting direct military combat, with a specific date attached. A 'No' means the war continues past that deadline without such an agreement. The key word is 'agree': both countries must say yes to the same thing, together. To settle as Yes, both Russia and Ukraine must announce — or be credibly confirmed by major news outlets — to have mutually agreed to stop fighting, with a named start date for the pause. The bar is high: vague promises to talk, one-sided ceasefires, agreements only covering drones or one region, or quiet back-channel deals do not count. Only a clear, general, two-sided commitment to halt combat qualifies. The market checks this against each deadline — August 31, October 31, and December 31, 2026. The main recent news is Ukrainian President Zelensky attending a meeting in Paris in mid-July 2026 to request more air defence systems from European partners. This signals Ukraine is still focused on strengthening its military position rather than winding down the conflict. It does not point toward an imminent ceasefire agreement, but diplomatic meetings can shift quickly — any direct Russia-Ukraine or major-power negotiation breakthrough would be the kind of development to watch. This is genuinely hard to call because a ceasefire requires both sides to want one at the same moment, under terms each can accept — and those positions remain far apart. Diplomatic talks can accelerate or collapse without warning. The criteria are also strict: informal truces or partial deals won't qualify. The market's spread across three deadlines reflects real uncertainty about timing, not just outcome. At 41% for the December date, the market sees it as possible but not expected — meaning the main question is whether conditions shift enough within 18 months.

The odds right now

• December 31+1.0 pts (1w)41%
• October 3125%
• August 3110%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.