South Carolina Senate Election Winner

What you need to know

This market is asking which party will win South Carolina's U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 midterm election. A Yes on Republican means a Republican candidate wins that seat; a Yes on Democrat means a Democratic candidate wins it. South Carolina has one Senate seat up for election in 2026 — and as of this writing, that seat has become unexpectedly open following the death of long-serving Senator Lindsey Graham, meaning the race no longer has an incumbent running. The market settles — meaning it gets its final Yes or No answer — once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. That typically happens on election night or shortly after, once enough votes are counted to declare a clear winner. If those three outlets don't all agree, the market waits for the official state certification. One edge case worth knowing: if someone runs as an independent, even if they're personally close to one party, their win would not count as a win for either the Republican or Democrat option here. The biggest recent development is the death of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 12, 2026, at age 71. Graham had held this Senate seat since 2003 and was a prominent Republican ally of former President Trump. His passing means the 2026 race will not feature an incumbent, which reshapes the contest entirely. Trump has publicly teased naming a preferred replacement candidate, suggesting the Republican Party is already moving to secure the seat. Who ultimately runs — for both parties — is now the central unknown. The main uncertainty right now is candidate selection, not the underlying partisan lean. South Carolina is a reliably Republican state, which is why the market prices a Republican win at around 80%. The bigger open question is who will actually run — the governor will appoint someone to fill Graham's seat temporarily, and that person may or may not become the Republican nominee. A strong or weak candidate on either side could shift the odds. The Democratic path to winning here is narrow by historical standards, but candidate quality and national political conditions in 2026 still matter.

The odds right now

• Republican-5.5 pts (1w)81%
• Democrat+5.5 pts (1w)20%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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