"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office

What you need to know

This market is asking how much money the new Spider-Man movie — 'Brand New Day' — will earn in North American theaters during its very first weekend (July 31 to August 2, 2026). The different brackets represent ranges: for example, a result in the '260-280m' bracket means the film brought in somewhere between $260 million and $280 million domestically that weekend. A higher bracket winning means the film opened big; a lower one means it underperformed relative to expectations. After the opening weekend ends on August 2, 2026, the market waits for The Numbers website to publish its final, confirmed box office figures — not the early studio estimates that come out Sunday night, but the audited numbers that typically settle by Monday or Tuesday. Whichever dollar range those final figures fall into is the bracket that wins. One small edge case: if the total lands exactly on a bracket boundary (say, precisely $260 million), it resolves to the higher bracket. If data isn't confirmed by August 9, another trusted source steps in. None of the provided news headlines relate to 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day,' its production, cast, marketing, or box office tracking. There's nothing here to draw on. What would actually matter to watch for: early ticket pre-sale numbers, critic reviews or audience scores ahead of release, and any competing films opening the same weekend — those are the signals that tend to shift opening-weekend expectations. Opening weekend box office is genuinely hard to forecast over a year out. The market currently spreads probability across multiple brackets, with no single outcome above 30%, which reflects real uncertainty. Key unknowns include: how audiences respond to the film's story and cast, how strong critic and fan word-of-mouth is, what competition sits in nearby weekends, and broader conditions like summer heat or major events that affect theater attendance. Even well-reviewed, heavily anticipated films can surprise in either direction once real ticket buyers decide.

The odds right now

• 260-280m+13.3 pts (1w)29%
• 240-260m-21.1 pts (1w)26%
• 220-240m-9.5 pts (1w)15%
• >280m+13.0 pts (1w)14%
• 200-220m+2.0 pts (1w)13%
• <200m+0.1 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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