Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

What you need to know

This is actually three separate markets bundled together, each asking whether a fundraising campaign for a project called Credible — running on a platform called MetaDAO — will hit a different dollar milestone: $6 million, $8 million, or $10 million in pledged money. A 'Yes' means enough people committed enough funds to cross that threshold before the sale closes. A 'No' means it fell short. The market currently prices the $6M threshold at 96%, $8M at 94%, and $10M at 85% — suggesting participants strongly expect this raise to do well. The market settles based on one specific number: the 'committed' figure shown live on the official Credible sale page at metadao.fi. If that number hits the threshold — even once, even briefly — before August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves Yes, even if people later cancel or pull back their pledges. There are two key surprises here: first, refunds don't undo a Yes; second, if the sale is cancelled, delayed past August 31, or the page goes dark, the market resolves No by default. None of the recent news provided is related to Credible, MetaDAO, or this fundraise in any way. The headlines cover unrelated topics like protests in Nepal and steel plant openings. There is no relevant news to report here. What would actually matter to watch: any official announcements from the Credible or MetaDAO teams about the sale timeline, committed totals, or any pause or cancellation of the raise. The market is heavily one-sided — priced at 85–96% across all three thresholds — so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected derails it. The real risks are edge-case ones: a technical problem with the platform, the sale being paused or cancelled, or a sudden drop in participant confidence before the raise closes. The $10M threshold is the most open question at 85%, since it requires the most total commitment. But broadly, the market is not treating this as a close call.

The odds right now

• >2M99%
• >4M99%
• >6M96%
• >8M94%
• >10M88%
• >12M83%
• >14M83%
• >16M79%
• >18M75%
• >20M66%
• >25M49%
• >30M38%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments for the Credible raise on MetaDAO exceeds the number specified in the title before the raise closes. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the “committed” figure displayed on the official Credible sale page at https://www.metadao.fi/projects/credible/fundraise. If the displayed figure reaches the threshold at any point before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. If the sale is on hold and no commitment total is verifiable by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the raise event is otherwise cancelled or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market resolves to "No". If requisite information for this market’s resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. If the sale begins and is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution.

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