"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

What you need to know

This market is asking how much money Toy Story 5 will earn in U.S. cinemas during its first weekend — specifically the three days of June 19–21, 2026. The brackets represent different ranges: a 'Yes' on the top bracket (over $184 million) means a blockbuster-level opening, while lower brackets reflect a more modest debut. Think of it as a crowd-sourced guess at where the film lands on the opening-weekend scoreboard. The market settles based on the final, confirmed three-day domestic gross for June 19–21, as reported by The Numbers website — not early studio estimates, which are often slightly off. Whichever dollar range that final number falls into wins. If a number lands exactly on the boundary between two brackets, it counts as the higher one. If The Numbers hasn't posted final figures by June 28, 2026, a different trusted box office source will be used instead. None of the provided news headlines relate to Toy Story 5, its release, or box office performance. What would actually matter to watch for: advance ticket sales data, early critic reviews, competing films opening the same weekend, and any pre-release tracking reports from industry analysts — those tend to be the clearest signals before a film opens. Box office forecasting is genuinely hard even for professionals. A film's opening weekend depends on audience word-of-mouth, critic reception, weather, competing releases, and how well marketing landed — none of which are fully visible in advance. The market currently leans toward a strong opening (about 63% chance of $171 million or more), but animated sequels can surprise in either direction. There's also a gap in the brackets — ranges below $145 million and between $158–171 million aren't shown here, so the full picture may involve more uncertainty than these three options suggest.

The odds right now

• 158-171m40%
• 171-184m36%
• >184m14%
• 145-158m11%
• <145m2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 22, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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