US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US will officially walk away from peace talks with Iran before a specific date. In June 2026, the US and Iran signed a short-term agreement — called an MOU — to pause hostilities and spend 60 days negotiating a longer-term deal. This market tracks whether the US formally announces it is quitting those follow-on negotiations altogether. Yes means the US publicly ends its participation. No means talks continue, or at least that no clear official exit is announced by the deadline. For this to settle Yes, a senior US official — the President, the State Department, or someone authorized to speak for the government — must make a clear, direct, official announcement that the US is done with the negotiations. The announcement has to be definitive, not vague or conditional. A pause, a walkout from one meeting, or a leaked rumor does not count. If no such announcement happens by 11:59 PM ET on the date in question, it resolves No. Importantly, even if the US later reverses course, a qualifying announcement still locks in a Yes. There is one relevant piece of news: Iranian media reported new attacks on military targets near Qeshm island, close to the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, on July 12, 2026. That is significant because it suggests active conflict or tensions in the region even after the June 14 MOU was signed. Ongoing military incidents could pressure the negotiations in either direction — they could give either side reason to keep talking, or reason to walk away. The core difficulty here is that diplomacy at this level can shift very fast and very unpredictably. The MOU was only signed about a month ago, and the 60-day negotiating window is still open. The reported attacks near Hormuz add real tension to an already fragile process. On top of that, the resolution criteria are deliberately strict — a vague statement or a conditional threat to withdraw would not count. So even if relations deteriorate badly, it might not produce the specific kind of clean, official announcement this market requires.

The odds right now

• August 3134%
• July 31+11.5 pts (1w)18%
• July 2416%
• July 1711%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.

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