What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in July 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Natural Gas futures prices will touch specific price levels at any point during July 2026. There are three separate questions bundled here: will the price drop to $2.80 or lower (50% odds), drop to $2.60 or lower (12% odds), or rise to $3.40 or higher (9% odds)? Each is judged independently. Natural Gas futures are contracts that reflect the market's current price for natural gas — think of it as the going rate energy traders use as a benchmark. Each price target settles Yes or No based on whether a single one-minute price snapshot on the Natural Gas futures chart touches or crosses that level during any July 2026 trading session. Even one brief moment counts — it does not need to stay there. The data comes from Pyth, a real-time price feed, using one-minute candle highs and lows. If Natural Gas doesn't trade at all in July 2026, everything resolves No. Note: the 'active month' contract can shift during the period per CME rules, so the contract being tracked may roll over mid-month. None of the provided news headlines directly relate to Natural Gas prices or energy markets. No recent price moves, supply reports, or weather-driven demand news were included. The kind of news that would matter here includes U.S. storage reports, unusual summer heat driving air-conditioning demand, LNG export developments, or unexpected supply disruptions — those are the signals worth watching. Natural Gas is one of the most volatile commodity markets, and July adds extra unpredictability because summer weather — especially heat waves — can swing demand sharply and quickly. The market currently prices a $2.80 drop as a coin flip, while $3.40 upside is seen as unlikely. But these prices can move fast on a single hot week or a surprise storage report. The bar for Yes is also low: just one brief touch in an entire month counts, which makes extreme moves more reachable than they might seem.

The odds right now

• ↓ $2.80+39.0 pts (1w)47%
• ↓ $2.60+7.5 pts (1w)11%
• ↑ $3.40-62.5 pts (1w)9%
• ↑ $3.60-25.9 pts (1w)3%
• ↑ $3.80-6.5 pts (1w)3%
• ↑ $4.20-1.0 pts (1w)2%
• ↑ $4.00-4.0 pts (1w)2%
• ↓ $2.40-0.1 pts (1w)2%
• ↑ $4.40-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• ↑ $4.60-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• ↓ $2.00-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• ↓ $2.20-1.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Related

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