What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which specific TV show will land in the number two spot on Netflix's official US popularity chart for a particular week. Every Tuesday, Netflix publishes a ranked list of its most-watched shows in the US. This question is simply: when that list updates on July 21, 2026, what will be sitting in second place? The current frontrunner is a show called The Hawk: Season 1, with Little House on the Prairie and I Will Find You also in the running. The market settles based on the official Netflix Top 10 list published at top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, around 3:00 PM Eastern Time. Whatever show Netflix lists as #2 in the US that day — measured by total views for the Monday-through-Sunday week before — wins. One important edge case: if Netflix doesn't publish that update by July 24, 2026 at midnight, the whole market resolves as 'Other,' regardless of what any show was doing in the charts. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They cover geopolitical events and an unrelated Netflix movie report, but nothing about the specific TV shows listed here or their current viewership trends. The kind of news that would actually matter is any buzz, new episode releases, or viral moments connected to The Hawk, Little House on the Prairie, or I Will Find You in the days leading up to the ranking cutoff. Netflix viewership can shift quickly and unpredictably — a single viral moment, a new episode drop, or a social media surge can move a show up or down within days. The #2 spot specifically is hard to call because it depends not just on how well one show performs, but on what happens above it at #1. The market prices The Hawk as the most likely answer at 53%, but that still leaves nearly half the probability spread across other outcomes, which reflects genuine week-to-week unpredictability in streaming rankings.

The odds right now

• Little House on the Prairie: Season 138%
• The Hawk: Season 114%
• I Will Find You: Limited Series6%
• Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 12%
• Quarterback: Season 30%
• The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 40%
• Dark Winds: Season 40%
• Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 20%
• Sullivan's Crossing: Season 40%
• Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 20%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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