What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking one simple question: which movie will Netflix officially rank as number one in the United States for the week ending July 20, 2026? A Yes on 'Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea' means that title sits at the very top of Netflix's US movie chart when the weekly update is published. A win for 'Other' would mean some different movie claimed the top spot instead. The market settles based on the official Netflix Top 10 update posted at top10.netflix.com, expected on Tuesday, July 21, 2026 around 3:00 PM Eastern time. Whatever movie Netflix lists as number one for US views that week wins. If Netflix does not publish that update by July 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern, the market automatically resolves as 'Other', regardless of what was actually most watched. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to this market. There is no recent reporting about 'Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea' or Netflix US movie rankings in the supplied news. The kind of update that would matter here is a Netflix chart leak, a major new movie release on the platform, or reporting on the film's viewership performance. At 96%, the market strongly implies 'Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea' is already dominating the Netflix US chart heading into this final week. The main remaining uncertainty is whether anything disrupts that lead: a surprise blockbuster release, an unexpected viral moment for another title, or a data anomaly. This is not really a two-sided contest at these odds. The honest question is simply whether something unusual happens before the chart is published.

The odds right now

• Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea96%
• The Hunger Games: Catching Fire1%
• The Doorman0%
• White Chicks0%
• Enola Holmes 30%
• Heartstopper Forever0%
• Voicemails for Isabelle0%
• KPop Demon Hunters0%
• The Hunger Games0%
• Old Henry0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.