What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: which show will be the most-watched TV series on Netflix in the US for one specific week? Right now, the two contenders are 'Little House on the Prairie: Season 1' — the classic 1970s family drama, apparently newly added or resurging on Netflix — and 'The Hawk: Season 1,' a newer series. A Yes for either one means it topped the US charts that week by total views. There is no other outcome available here besides these two shows. The market settles based on Netflix's official weekly Top 10 update, published at top10.netflix.com around 3:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Whatever show Netflix lists as #1 in the US for that week's viewing period (Monday through Sunday) wins. One important edge case: if Netflix does not publish that update by July 24, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' — meaning neither show wins, even if one of them was actually the most-watched. None of the provided recent news headlines relate to Netflix viewership, either of these shows, or anything in entertainment. There is nothing here to draw on. The kind of news that would matter to watch for is a major new Netflix release that could knock both shows off the top spot, or any viral social-media moment driving viewers to one of these titles. The main challenge is that Netflix viewership can shift quickly and unpredictably. A single viral moment, a celebrity mention, or a competing show surging unexpectedly can reshuffle the rankings within days. 'Little House on the Prairie' leads at 63%, so the market leans that direction — but the week's viewing period hasn't closed yet, and 'The Hawk' at 38% is genuinely close. Small swings in audience behavior in the final days of the week could flip the result.

The odds right now

• Little House on the Prairie: Season 151%
• The Hawk: Season 143%
• The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 44%
• Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 11%
• Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 21%
• I Will Find You: Limited Series0%
• Dark Winds: Season 40%
• Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 20%
• Sullivan's Crossing: Season 40%
• Quarterback: Season 30%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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