When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will touch $150,000 before the end of 2026. A Yes means Bitcoin reaches that level at any point before January 1, 2027. A No means it never gets there in time. To put it in perspective, $150,000 would be roughly double the price Bitcoin was trading at for much of 2024 and early 2025, so this is asking whether a very large price jump happens within a specific window. The market settles Yes the moment a single one-minute price candle on Binance's BTC/USDT chart shows a high of $150,000 or more — even briefly. It only needs to touch that level once, for even one minute, before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. One important edge case: only Binance's BTC/USDT pair counts. If Bitcoin hits $150k on Coinbase or another exchange but not on Binance, this market still resolves No. The only news provided is unrelated to Bitcoin — it's a real estate company's dividend announcement. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. What would genuinely matter to watch: major regulatory developments, large institutional adoption moves, macroeconomic shifts like interest rate changes, or significant market-wide events that historically move Bitcoin's price sharply. The market currently prices this at only around 4%, meaning participants collectively see it as quite unlikely — but not impossible. Bitcoin's history includes dramatic, fast-moving rallies that surprised most observers, so the small probability reflects a real if narrow path. The main genuine uncertainty is simply whether an unexpected catalyst — a policy shift, a macro shock, a surge in institutional demand — could drive a move of that magnitude before the deadline.

The odds right now

• by December 31, 2026-0.4 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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