Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

What you need to know

This market asks where the next serious, senior-level face-to-face negotiating round between the US and Iran will take place — and whether it happens at all before October 2026. A round of talks already happened in Switzerland on June 22, and the question is simply: where does the next one occur? Switzerland winning would mean talks return to the same neutral ground; Pakistan winning would mean a different host country steps in; 'No Meeting' winning would mean diplomacy stalls entirely before the deadline. For the market to settle on a specific country, there must be a new, formally convened senior-level round of US-Iran negotiations that starts in that country before September 30, 2026. Both governments must have authorized it, and it must be publicly confirmed by at least one government or a consensus of credible news outlets. Crucially, follow-on technical or working-group meetings from the June 22 Switzerland round do not count on their own — it must be a fresh, senior-level round. If talks happen in an unlisted European country, it resolves 'Other - Europe'; an unlisted Middle Eastern country resolves 'Other - Middle East/North Africa.' The recent news is deeply significant and works against further diplomacy in the short term. In mid-July 2026, Iran launched strikes on several Gulf Arab nations — UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Jordan — and the US struck Iran in return near the Strait of Hormuz. These are active military exchanges, not a diplomatic backdrop. When two sides are actively attacking each other and regional neighbors are condemning one party, scheduling a formal peace round becomes dramatically harder. This is exactly the kind of escalation that tends to freeze or collapse ongoing negotiations. The core tension here is stark: the market was built on a moment of diplomatic progress in June, but the situation has since shifted toward open military conflict. The biggest uncertainty is whether the ceasefire or de-escalation conditions needed for talks to resume can form before September 30 — and if they do, whether either side would trust a venue enough to show up. The location question (Switzerland vs. Pakistan vs. elsewhere) becomes almost secondary to whether talks happen at all. Geopolitical crises can both collapse diplomacy and, sometimes, urgently accelerate it — which makes this genuinely hard to call.

The odds right now

• Switzerland+12.0 pts (1w)30%
• Qatar-3.5 pts (1w)28%
• No Meeting by September 30+11.8 pts (1w)18%
• Pakistan-20.3 pts (1w)15%
• Oman+1.8 pts (1w)4%
• Turkey+1.0 pts (1w)2%
• Other - Europe1%
• Egypt-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Italy-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Austria-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Saudi Arabia1%
• Other - Middle East/North Africa-0.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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