Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

What you need to know

This market asks whether OpenAI, DeepSeek, or xAI will hold the single top spot on a specific public AI leaderboard — called Chatbot Arena — at any point before July 2026. Chatbot Arena ranks AI models based on real human votes: people chat with two anonymous models and pick the one they prefer, and those votes build into a score. Whoever has the highest score at any moment holds #1. A Yes here means that company briefly or consistently sits at the very top of that ranking. Each company resolves Yes if its model reaches the #1 Arena Score on lmarena.ai — even for just a brief moment — before June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A tie for first place also counts as Yes. The score used is the plain Arena Score with 'style control' turned off, which is a specific setting on the leaderboard. If the website goes offline temporarily, the market waits. The key detail: it only takes one moment at #1 — the company doesn't need to hold that position for a long time. None of the provided news headlines relate to AI model rankings, Chatbot Arena, or the companies in this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch: any major new model launch from OpenAI, DeepSeek, or xAI, or reporting that one of their models is climbing or topping the Chatbot Arena leaderboard. The market prices all three companies quite low — OpenAI at 4%, DeepSeek and xAI each at 1% — which tells you the crowd currently expects another company (most likely Google or Anthropic) to dominate the #1 spot through June 2026. The main real uncertainty is whether a surprise release from one of these three could briefly seize the top position, since even a short moment at #1 counts. AI rankings can shift quickly after a major new model launch, so a single unexpected release could change things.

The odds right now

• OpenAI-3.5 pts (1w)4%
• DeepSeek-0.6 pts (1w)1%
• xAI-2.0 pts (1w)1%
• Z.ai-1.0 pts (1w)1%
• Meta-1.1 pts (1w)1%
• Alibaba-0.7 pts (1w)1%
• Nvidia-0.9 pts (1w)1%
• Baidu-1.1 pts (1w)1%
• Mistral-0.9 pts (1w)1%
• Meituan-1.9 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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