Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

What you need to know

This market is asking: when will ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz get back to a normal, healthy level — and will it even happen before the end of 2026? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and it is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world — especially for oil. Right now, traffic there is below normal. The market tracks a specific number: roughly 60 ships passing through per day on a 7-day rolling average. Think of that threshold as the line between 'disrupted' and 'back to normal.' This market settles — meaning it gets its final answer — the moment a tracking tool called IMF Portwatch records a 7-day average of 60 or more ship transits in a single day for the Strait of Hormuz. The 7-day average smooths out daily noise, so one busy day alone won't do it; traffic needs to sustain that level. Whichever calendar month contains that first qualifying date wins. If that threshold is never crossed before December 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.' Only ships that IMF Portwatch tracks are counted. There is directly relevant news here: as of July 13, 2026, fresh military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices up sharply — about 4% — signaling that the waterway is under active pressure right now. This matters because military activity in or near the Strait is exactly the kind of event that keeps ship traffic depressed. The other headlines in the provided news are unrelated to this market. The biggest source of uncertainty is geopolitical: whether military tensions around the Strait escalate, hold steady, or ease is genuinely hard to forecast. The market currently gives a 37% chance that traffic never recovers in 2026, and spreads the remaining probability across individual months — with no single month above 16%. That spread tells you there is real disagreement about timing, not just outcome. The 60-ship threshold also matters: if current traffic is close to that level, small shifts could trigger resolution quickly; if it is far below, recovery could take many months or not happen at all.

The odds right now

• No Return to Normal Traffic in 202637%
• November16%
• December12%
• August10%
• October10%
• September6%
• July2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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