Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

What you need to know

This market is asking which party will *gain the most new seats* in Russia's next parliamentary election — not which party wins the most seats overall. That distinction matters a lot. United Russia already dominates the State Duma, so even if it stays the biggest party by far, another party could win this market simply by picking up more seats than United Russia does compared to where things stand today. Think of it like asking which team improved the most, not which team finished first. The market settles on whichever named party adds the most seats to its current total in the State Duma election expected in September 2026. The comparison is before vs. after: net seats gained, not total seats held. If two parties gain the same number of seats, the tiebreaker goes to total votes received, and if that's also tied, alphabetical order of abbreviations decides it. Official results come from Russia's Central Election Commission. If no clear result is known by September 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other.' None of the provided news headlines relate to Russian parliamentary politics or the 2026 State Duma election. The headlines cover Ukrainian and American political news. There is no relevant recent reporting to point to here. The kind of news that would matter for this market would be shifts in Russian domestic polling, changes in how parties are allowed to register or campaign, or any official announcements about election rules or timing. The core difficulty is that Russian elections are heavily controlled by the state, which makes outside prediction genuinely hard. Official results may not reflect free competition between parties. United Russia holds the dominant position now, so the real question is whether a smaller party — particularly New People, which the market prices at 40% — is being positioned or permitted to gain ground. Independent verification of seat counts may be limited, and the market's reliance on official Russian sources adds another layer of uncertainty about what 'credible results' will look like.

The odds right now

• United Russia (ER)-3.0 pts (1w)54%
• New People (NL)+5.6 pts (1w)40%
• Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1 pts (1w)4%
• Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.6 pts (1w)2%
• A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Rodina0%
• Civic Platform (GP)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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