Who will replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?

What you need to know

This market is asking who the Governor of South Carolina will pick to fill Lindsey Graham's U.S. Senate seat, following Graham's death. A U.S. Senate seat can't sit empty for long — when a senator dies or resigns, the state's governor typically appoints someone to serve until voters elect a permanent replacement. This market is essentially a name-guessing question: which specific person gets that appointment? Pamela Evette is South Carolina's current Lieutenant Governor; David Wilkins is a former state Speaker and U.S. Ambassador. This market settles on whichever person the Governor of South Carolina officially appoints to fill Graham's seat — even a temporary or interim appointment counts. The deadline is November 2, 2026. If nobody has been appointed by then, the market settles as 'None Before Midterm Election.' The decision belongs entirely to the Governor; there's no vote or public process required. The confirmation source will be official state or Senate records, or a clear consensus from credible news outlets. News from July 13, 2026 confirms that Lindsey Graham has died and the Senate has reconvened following his passing. That establishes why this market exists — the vacancy is real and the appointment process can now begin. No news has surfaced yet naming a specific appointee or indicating the Governor has made a decision. The key thing to watch for is any statement from South Carolina's Governor signaling who they are considering. The Governor of South Carolina has sole discretion here, and that person hasn't publicly named a pick yet — so the outcome depends almost entirely on a private political decision. Governors in these situations weigh party loyalty, personal relationships, electability in an upcoming election, and political pressure from national figures. Pamela Evette leads the market at 38%, but that still means the market sees a 62% chance it's someone else or nobody before the deadline. Until the Governor speaks, this is genuinely open.

The odds right now

• Darline Graham Nordone63%
• Trey Gowdy 50%
• Pamela Evette13%
• David Wilkins10%
• Joe Wilson6%
• Alan Wilson4%
• André Bauer4%
• Mick Mulvaney4%
• Paul Dans3%
• Ralph Norman3%
• Russell Fry3%
• None Before Midterm Election3%

How this resolves

Resolves November 2, 2026

The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term. This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina. Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count. If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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