Who will Trump meet with in July?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether specific world leaders will have a face-to-face meeting with President Trump at any point during July 2026. There are three separate yes/no questions bundled here — one for each person: Joseph Aoun (the President of Lebanon), Giorgia Meloni (the Prime Minister of Italy), and Benjamin Netanyahu (the Prime Minister of Israel). A 'Yes' for any of them simply means the two people were in the same room and spoke in person. A 'No' means that never happened in July. Each person's market settles as Yes if credible news outlets report that they physically met with Trump at any point between July 1 and July 31, 2026. The key word is 'in person' — a phone call or video call does not count. There is no minimum length or formality required; even a brief personal interaction qualifies. The market uses a consensus of credible reporting to confirm it, so one unverified claim would not be enough. If no reliable reporting confirms the meeting happened, it resolves No. The provided news headlines don't directly mention any scheduled or completed meetings between Trump and these three leaders. The headlines cover the ICC, the Strait of Hormuz, and claims about India's Modi influencing Putin during the Ukraine war — none of which directly signals whether Aoun, Meloni, or Netanyahu will meet Trump in July. To track this market, the most relevant developments to watch for would be announced state visits, diplomatic summits, or White House meeting confirmations involving these three leaders. The market is pricing these quite differently — Aoun at 92%, Meloni at 68%, and Netanyahu at 64% — suggesting participants see a near-certain meeting for Aoun but more genuine doubt about the other two. The main uncertainty is simply scheduling and diplomacy: meetings can be planned and then quietly cancelled, or arranged with little advance notice. Geopolitical developments — like the Hormuz tensions or the Ukraine situation — could either accelerate or delay diplomatic visits. There is still half of July remaining, and a lot can shift in that window.

The odds right now

• Joseph Aoun-2.5 pts (1w)92%
• Giorgia Meloni-26.5 pts (1w)61%
• Benjamin Netanyahu-17.0 pts (1w)61%
• Elon Musk-9.5 pts (1w)13%
• Mohammed bin Salman-0.5 pts (1w)6%
• Vladimir Putin-0.3 pts (1w)3%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+1.9 pts (1w)3%
• Miguel Díaz-Canel-0.4 pts (1w)2%
• Kim Jong Un-0.7 pts (1w)1%
• Xi Jinping-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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