WI-05 House Election Winner

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will the Republican or Democratic candidate win Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District seat in the U.S. House in 2026? A 'Yes' for Republicans means a Republican wins that seat; a 'Yes' for Democrats means a Democrat does. The district covers a specific geographic area of Wisconsin, and whoever wins holds that seat in Congress starting in January 2027. The market settles on whichever party's candidate is declared the winner of the WI-05 race on Election Day, November 3, 2026. The call will be based on credible news reporting first; if that's unclear, the official Federal Election Commission results decide it. One nuance: if a candidate runs without a clear party label, the market will assign them to whichever major party they said they'd align with in Congress. None of the provided news headlines relate to Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District race. The kind of news that would matter here includes candidate announcements, primary results, fundraising reports, or any major local political developments in the Milwaukee-area district that WI-05 covers. The market prices this heavily toward Republicans at 92%, so this is not a close race in the eyes of current participants — the main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected changes that picture. WI-05 has historically leaned Republican. What could shift things: a strong Democratic challenger emerging, a national political wave favoring Democrats in midterms, a scandal, or redistricting effects. With over a year until Election Day, candidate fields and conditions can still change.

The odds right now

• Republican Party+8.3 pts (1w)92%
• Democratic Party-6.2 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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