Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether a crypto project called Arc will release its own governance token before a specific date. A governance token is a type of cryptocurrency that typically gives holders some say in how a project is run. A 'Yes' means Arc actually launches a real, tradable token by the deadline. A 'No' means it either never launches one, or only announces plans without the token being real and usable. For this to settle as Yes, two things must be true: Arc must have an official governance token live before 11:59 PM ET on the deadline date, and that token must be publicly tradable, meaning anyone can buy or sell it freely. An announcement or a promise of a future token does not count. The market will check Arc's own official communications first, and will also look at credible crypto news coverage to confirm. No actual trading activity means No. There is no specific recent news available for this market right now. The kind of development that would matter most here is any official statement from Arc about token plans, a launch date announcement, or credible reporting that a token is live and trading. The three deadline tiers give a useful picture: the market puts Arc at about 46% to launch by end of 2026, 71% by mid-2027, and 85% by end of 2027. The main uncertainties are real: crypto project timelines slip often, regulatory conditions around token launches can change, and Arc may choose not to launch a token at all. Even a project that intends to launch can delay for technical or legal reasons, and announcements without a live token explicitly do not count here.

The odds right now

• December 31, 2027-17.4 pts (1w)71%
• June 30, 2027-22.5 pts (1w)50%
• December 31, 2026-26.0 pts (1w)28%
• September 30, 2026-7.9 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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