UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether a full, formal nuclear-and-diplomacy agreement between the U.S. and Iran will be completed and then stamped with official United Nations approval — all before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means the deal goes all the way: negotiated, signed, and passed as a binding UN Security Council resolution. A 'No' means that either the deal never gets finalized, or it does but the UN never formally endorses it in time. The June 14 agreement was a preliminary framework — think of it as a handshake memo that promised a real deal would follow. This market settles 'Yes' only if the UN Security Council — the 15-member body that includes the U.S., Russia, China, UK, and France as permanent members — votes to adopt a resolution that officially endorses the final deal, and that happens by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The key edge case: if a final deal is reached but the Security Council vote doesn't happen before the deadline, it still resolves 'No'. Any one permanent member can veto the resolution, which would also block a 'Yes' outcome. The most recent news points in a troubling direction. As of July 15, 2026, the U.S. was launching new military strikes on Iranian targets, Iran had struck a U.S. base with drones, and President Trump was publicly threatening attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges. These headlines describe an active military confrontation, which is the opposite of the diplomatic calm a final deal would require. No news of resumed negotiations or a ceasefire was provided. The market currently prices this at about 23%, reflecting real skepticism — and the recent news explains why. Active military conflict between the two sides makes completing a complex diplomatic agreement in roughly five months extremely difficult. Even if fighting stops, a final deal must then survive UNSC negotiations where Russia or China could veto. The June 14 framework exists, but the distance between a preliminary memo and a binding UN resolution is enormous. The main uncertainty is whether the conflict de-escalates fast enough to even allow negotiations to resume.

The odds right now

• UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?-2.5 pts (1w)23%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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