What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of July 13 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking how low gold's price will fall during the week of July 13, 2026 — specifically whether it will drop to $3,900 or $3,950, or rise to $4,150. Each price level is a separate Yes/No question: the '↓ $3,950' market resolves Yes if gold touches or drops below $3,950 at any moment that week, and the '↑ $4,150' market resolves Yes if gold touches or climbs above $4,150. Think of them as trip wires — did the price ever reach that level, even briefly? Each price level settles independently: if gold's price touches or crosses the listed level on even a single one-minute snapshot during the trading week (Sunday 6 PM ET through Friday 5 PM ET), that market resolves Yes. The data comes from Pyth, a real-time price feed, using one-minute candle highs and lows. If Pyth has an outage, CME COMEX gold futures data serves as the backup. If gold doesn't trade at all that week, everything resolves No — though that would be highly unusual. None of the provided news headlines relate to gold prices or financial markets. The stories this week cover an Indian physics competition, an architecture award, a business investment, a White House renovation, and a celebrity death. There is no relevant market-moving news here to point to. What would actually matter to watch: any major central bank announcements, U.S. inflation data, dollar strength shifts, or geopolitical developments — those are the kinds of events that tend to move gold significantly. Gold prices can swing sharply and unpredictably in a single week, which is exactly what makes this hard to call. The market currently prices a drop to $3,950 at 57% and $3,900 at 38%, implying the market sees meaningful downside risk from wherever gold is trading now. But gold is sensitive to sudden news — a surprise Federal Reserve signal, a geopolitical shock, or a shift in the U.S. dollar can move prices hundreds of dollars quickly. The 'trip wire' format means even a brief spike or dip counts, amplifying uncertainty further.

The odds right now

• ↓ $3,95059%
• ↓ $3,90036%
• ↑ $4,15018%
• ↓ $3,85011%
• ↑ $4,2006%
• ↓ $3,8004%
• ↑ $4,3004%
• ↑ $4,4003%
• ↑ $4,3503%
• ↑ $4,2503%
• ↑ $4,4501%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 17, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of July 13 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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