Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

What you need to know

This market is asking: which Democrat will win Wisconsin's governor primary on August 11, 2026? Wisconsin's current governor, Tony Evers, is term-limited, so the Democratic Party needs a new candidate to carry their banner into the general election. Whoever wins this primary becomes the Democratic nominee for governor. A 'Yes' for any candidate simply means that person got the most votes among Democrats that day. The market settles based on whoever wins the August 11, 2026 Democratic primary vote in Wisconsin — the candidate with the most votes wins, including any runoff if one happens. The official Wisconsin Democratic Party results are the primary source, though widespread agreement among major news outlets can also count. One important edge case: if the primary never takes place for any reason, the market resolves as 'Other' rather than going to any of the named candidates. One headline is directly relevant: a Wisconsin governor candidate reportedly has far less campaign money than she expected, which matters because fundraising is a real signal of a campaign's strength and reach. Unfortunately, the headline doesn't name which candidate, so it's hard to know who it affects. The other headlines in the news feed are unrelated to this race entirely — they cover South Carolina, Nigeria, and health insurance policy. The primary is still over a year away, which is a long time in politics — candidates can enter, drop out, or change the dynamic entirely. Fundraising gaps (as one headline hints) can reshape campaigns quickly. Francesca Hong leads at 59%, so the market leans toward her, but primary electorates are unpredictable and name recognition, endorsements, and late-breaking events all matter. The main uncertainty here is whether anything disrupts Hong's current lead, not whether the race is a true toss-up.

The odds right now

• Francesca Hong+12.9 pts (1w)62%
• Mandela Barnes+1.0 pts (1w)16%
• Sara Rodriguez-18.0 pts (1w)15%
• Kelda Roys+0.3 pts (1w)0%
• Joel Brennan+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• David Crowley0%
• Missy Hughes0%
• Brett Hulsey0%
• Zachary Roper0%
• Tim Jacobson0%
• Melissa Agard0%
• Chris Larson0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.