Bitcoin above ___ on May 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

This market asks whether Bitcoin's Binance spot price will close above specific thresholds at noon ET on 30 May 2026. The market contains eleven price-level outcomes ranging from $66,000 to $86,000. Volume is heavily concentrated at the lower thresholds, with the mid-range levels around $76,000–$78,000 representing the most evenly contested zone and higher thresholds attracting comparatively thin support. Resolution is determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 ET on 30 May 2026.

Market structure

Eleven binary yes/no outcomes are structured as a price ladder from $66,000 to $86,000 in $2,000 increments. Support is heavily concentrated at the lower rungs, thins progressively toward the mid-range, and becomes sparse above $80,000. Resolution depends on a single data point: the close price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at noon ET on 30 May 2026. The resolution deadline is 16:00 UTC on the same date. No fallback exchange is specified; Binance BTC/USDT is the sole source of truth.

Background

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation and among the most actively traded assets globally. Its price is characterised by significant volatility, with multi-thousand-dollar intraday swings occurring regularly during periods of elevated activity. The $66,000–$86,000 range covered by this market broadly reflects price territory Bitcoin has traded within during periods of strong institutional and retail demand. Markets structured as price-level ladders of this kind allow traders to express nuanced views on the distribution of probable outcomes across a range, rather than committing to a single point estimate. The use of a single 1-minute candle close as the resolution mechanism means that short-term volatility at the precise resolution moment — rather than the broader daily trend — is the operative factor.

Key factors

Several structural factors influence where Bitcoin's price may sit at the specific resolution moment. Macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate expectations and broader risk-asset sentiment, have historically correlated with Bitcoin price trends. Regulatory developments across major jurisdictions — particularly the United States, European Union, and Asia — can produce sharp repricing events. Exchange-level factors such as liquidity conditions on Binance BTC/USDT and the presence of large limit orders near round-number price thresholds are relevant given the precision of the resolution mechanism. The resolution relies on a single 1-minute candle at a fixed time, meaning that temporary spikes, flash crashes, or thin-liquidity conditions around noon ET on 30 May 2026 could move the outcome independently of broader daily trends. Scheduled macroeconomic data releases or central bank communications on or near that date could also introduce volatility at the resolution window.

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